Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-175/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 14.0.
Joe Mixon's receiving skills have been refined this year, accumulating 4.0 yards per game vs a measly 2.0 last year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 80.8%.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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