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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+132/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -168.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 4.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon's 19.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 14.0.

Joe Mixon's receiving skills have gotten better this year, compiling 4.0 yards per game vs a measly 2.0 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 80.1%.

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