Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has run a route on 50.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 3.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been among the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.
The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (88.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (88.3%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Joe Mixon's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.2% to 84.6%.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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