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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

Joe Mixon's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 16.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Cincinnati Bengals have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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