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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-170).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 4.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Joe Mixon has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 13.6% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon's play as a receiver has been refined this season, totaling 4.0 yards per game vs a mere 2.9 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (76.4%) vs. RBs this year (76.4%).

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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