Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Joe Mixon has run a route on 49.3% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 3.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has been among the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Joe Mixon has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, completing an impressive 88.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 88th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.