My Account Log Out

reorder

Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.

The model projects the Bengals to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Joe Mixon's skills in grinding out extra yardage have improved this year, totaling 9.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 7.55 figure last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

When it comes to air yards, Joe Mixon ranks in the lowly 4th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -8.0 per game.

Joe Mixon's 14.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.

More Joe Mixon Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™