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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Bengals are a big 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

In this game, Joe Mixon is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 80th percentile among RBs with 3.6 targets.

Joe Mixon's talent in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 10.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 7.55 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.

Joe Mixon has totaled a feeble -8.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile among running backs.

Joe Mixon's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

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