Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by the predictive model to call 67.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
This week, Joe Mixon is predicted by the projection model to land in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.1 targets.
Joe Mixon's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, notching 10.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 7.55 rate last year.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (a measly 55.9 per game on average).
Joe Mixon has compiled far fewer air yards this year (-9.0 per game) than he did last year (1.0 per game).
Joe Mixon's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.
The Cincinnati O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

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