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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.

This week's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are giant -10.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

With an impressive 6.8 adjusted yards per target (75th percentile) this year, Joe Mixon rates among the leading RB receiving threats in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the projections to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The Cincinnati Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.

When it comes to air yards, Joe Mixon grades out in the measly 4th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -8.0 per game.

Joe Mixon's 12.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.

The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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