Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to pass on 68.6% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in football.
In this week's game, Joe Mixon is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 88th percentile among running backs with 4.0 targets.
Joe Mixon's 9.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows an impressive progression in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 7.6% mark.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.
When it comes to air yards, Joe Mixon grades out in just the 2nd percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -8.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Joe Mixon has been used much less in his offense's passing game.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Bengals ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
Joe Mixon has accumulated substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).

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