Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
In this week's contest, Joe Mixon is expected by the predictive model to place in the 85th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets.
Joe Mixon's 10.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a material improvement in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 7.6% mark.
The Texans defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (42.0) to running backs this year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
In regards to air yards, Joe Mixon grades out in the lowly 3rd percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -8.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Joe Mixon has been utilized much less in his team's passing game.
Joe Mixon's 21.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a material decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 32.0 figure.

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