Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Burrow in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to garner 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 14.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has been among the leading pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.44 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.