Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 67.3% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's 19.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 14.0.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Joe Mixon has put up a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 22nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 89.2% to 82.1%.

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