Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has run a route on 50.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 3.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been among the leading RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 16.0 yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.
Joe Mixon's receiving efficiency has been refined this season, compiling 7.06 yards-per-target vs just 5.92 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Joe Mixon has put up a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 7th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Joe Mixon's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.2% to 84.6%.

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