Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
Joe Mixon has run a route on 50.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 3.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.26 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has compiled a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, notching just 4.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.17 figure last year.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 28.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.

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