Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 16.0.
Joe Mixon has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (32.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 7th-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

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