Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 16.0.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against running backs this year, giving up 5.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.