Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-712).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -642 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -712.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Joe Mixon has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.3% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 14.0.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league to RBs: 0.38 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has notched a mere -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 9th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.2% to 83.1%.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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