Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-989).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -947 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -989.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joe Mixon has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 19.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 14.0.
Joe Mixon grades out in the 83rd percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.14 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Joe Mixon has put up a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 22nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 89.2% to 82.1%.

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