Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 6:00 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+433/-983).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Joe Mixon has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 9.4% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 19.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 14.0.
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 10th-most TDs through the air in the league to running backs: 0.20 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Joe Mixon has compiled a puny -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 4th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 80.1%.

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