Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-975).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -940 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -975.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Joe Mixon's 21.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.0.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has accrued a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 5th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 89.2% to 77.1%.
Joe Mixon ranks in the 1st percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

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