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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-975).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -940 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -975.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • Joe Mixon's 21.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.0.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Joe Mixon has accrued a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 5th percentile among running backs.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Joe Mixon's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 89.2% to 77.1%.
  • Joe Mixon ranks in the 1st percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

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