Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+354/-701).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +433 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +354.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Joe Mixon's 22.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 14.0.
Joe Mixon grades out in the 81st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.12 per game.
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 6th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.25 per game since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has put up a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 71.8%.

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