Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to earn 15.2 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
After making up 68.6% of his offense's carries last year, Joe Mixon has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now accounting for 85.7%.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 31.9% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run just 60.1 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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