Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to notch 14.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bengals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
While Joe Mixon has accounted for 84.6% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, The leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati's rushing attack in this contest at 72.5%.
The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

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