Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to total 16.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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