Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 138.0 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
In this game, Joe Mixon is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.6 carries.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Indianapolis's group of safeties has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a measly 56.2 per game on average).
While Joe Mixon has garnered 77.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Cincinnati's rushing attack in this game at 62.3%.
The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.

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