Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 5, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Joe Mixon is expected by the predictive model to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.6 carries.
After accounting for 68.6% of his team's carries last season, Joe Mixon has played a bigger part in the run game this season, now making up 79.7%.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
This week's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are giant -10.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the projections to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.

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