Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 18.6 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game this week (73.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.9% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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