Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 19.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has received 80.8% of his team's rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.26 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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