Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to garner 14.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this week (54.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.7% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots safeties rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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