Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to total 19.8 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has been given 82.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 33.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.