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Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-286/+215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a huge 10-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

In this game, Joe Flacco is predicted by the predictive model to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Browns to call the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Joe Flacco's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 64.4% to 60.8%.

With an awful rate of only 0.50 per game (11th percentile), Joe Flacco rates among the weakest TD throwers in the NFL this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in football against the Lions defense since the start of last season (67.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Since the start of last season, the stout Lions defense has allowed a paltry 1.25 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 4th-best rate in football.

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