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Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +149 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Browns.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Browns have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 65.9 plays per game.

The predictive model expects Joe Flacco to throw 38.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Joe Flacco has been among the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 2.50 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Browns are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

Joe Flacco checks in as one of the least accurate passers in the NFL this year with a 60.3% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 22nd percentile.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the league versus the Jets defense this year (67.3% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the stout New York Jets defense has yielded a measly 1.07 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-best rate in football.

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