Joe Flacco TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joe Flacco

NFL · Player Props

Joe Flacco

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.3 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The Browns offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this week's game, Joe Flacco is anticipated by the model to have the 11th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.6.
Joe Flacco's 52.5% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a significant drop-off in his throwing accuracy over last year's 58.0% figure.
The Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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