Joe Flacco TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joe Flacco

NFL · Player Props

Joe Flacco

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -230 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed the 10th-most passing touchdowns in the league: 1.67 per game since the start of last season.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Cleveland Browns pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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