Joe Flacco TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joe Flacco

NFL · Player Props

Joe Flacco

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+190/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -265.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Flacco to attempt 38.9 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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