Joe Flacco Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Flacco

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Flacco Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 234.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 231.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Joe Flacco has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a terrific 67.5% Completion%, grading out in the 77th percentile.
Joe Flacco has been among the best per-play passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 8.18 yards-per-target while checking in at the 96th percentile.
Opposing QBs have passed for the most yards in the league (278.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.