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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to throw 38.8 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A passing game script is implied by the Bengals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a mere 53.0 per game on average).

This year, the tough Eagles defense has given up a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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