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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league in the red zone (57.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.

The model projects Joe Burrow to attempt 35.4 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-most among all QBs.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football.

Joe Burrow's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 71.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 123.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The Bengals have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume.

This year, the tough Ravens defense has surrendered a measly 65.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Baltimore's collection of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.

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