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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Carolina Panthers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -169 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.3% red zone pass rate.

This week, Joe Burrow is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.8.

Joe Burrow's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.2% to 71.6%.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's safety corps has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5 points.

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 27.26 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week.

The Bengals have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 56.4 plays per game.

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.1 per game) since the start of last season.

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