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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+122).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.6% red zone pass rate.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

In this week's game, Joe Burrow is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.0.

The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

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