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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -162.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.2% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 60.9% red zone pass rate.

This week, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the projection model to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Bengals have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.

Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 31.0 per game) since the start of last season.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in football vs. the Chiefs defense since the start of last season (68.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Since the start of last season, the strong Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a puny 1.11 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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