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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.7% of their opportunities: the greatest rate on the slate this week.

The model projects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.7% red zone pass rate.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.

In this week's game, Joe Burrow is projected by the projection model to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.9.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 8th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.27 per game this year.

The Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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