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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +164 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.1% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 138.5 plays on offense called: the highest number on the slate this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.

In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.4.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 10 points.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.

When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL versus the Browns defense this year (65.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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