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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (64.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

In averaging a colossal 38.6 pass attempts per game this year, Joe Burrow rates among the top quarterbacks in football (100th percentile) in this respect.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 4.5 points.

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Cowboys, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.

The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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