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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bengals to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 131.4 total plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.

This week, Joe Burrow is expected by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.0.

With an exceptional ratio of 2.45 per game (100th percentile), Joe Burrow stands among the leading TD passers in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (68.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Steelers defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 0.82 per game this year.

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