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Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+125).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.8% red zone pass rate.Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (77.6% Adjusted Completion%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.Joe Burrow's passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 65.7%.The Bills defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
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