Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the league in the red zone (61.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.3 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Joe Burrow's 60.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a a material decline in his passing precision over last year's 69.4% figure.

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