Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.4% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 37.8 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected by the model to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow's 56.2% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a a meaningful drop-off in his passing accuracy over last season's 69.4% mark.

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